Intro to Probability - YAQ Week 6
In this space I post the most common and recurrent questions of
the week. It can be used as additional material you can use to further
and test your understanding.
Question
We know that $P(\emptyset)=0$ for any probability $P$. Can we say
that $E=\emptyset$ if $P(E)=0$?
Answer
While the answer is sometimes yes, like for example in a finite sample
space where all outcomes have positive probability (like in the case
equiprobable outcomes), the answer is no in general. To see this,
consider flipping a fair coin repeatedly. Consider the event $\omega$
of the coin always landing on $H$ each time, i.e
$\omega=(H,H,H,H,\dots)$. We show that $P(\omega)=P(\{ \omega\})=0$,
while, of course, $\{ \omega \}\neq\emptyset$. Notice that, instead of
$\omega$, we could have chosen any specific sequence of heads and
tails. Define the events
$$
E_n=\big\{ (F_1,F_2,\dots)\in \{ H,T \}^\mathbb{N}\, \big |\,
F_1=F_2=\dots=F_n=H\big \}
$$
for $n\in \mathbb{N}$ and observe that $P(E_n)=\frac{1}{2^n}$. It then
follows that
$$
P(\{ \omega \})=P \bigl( \bigcap _{n=1}^\infty E_n\bigr)=
\lim _{n\to\infty}P(E_n)=\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{1}{2^n}=0
$$
since $E_{n+1}\subset E_n$ for $n\geq 1$.
Question
Why does it hold that $\frac{1}{k}\sum_{i=0}^k\bigl(\frac{i}{k}\bigr)^m\simeq
\frac{1}{m+1}$?
Answer
The integral of a continuous function $f:[0,1]\to \mathbb{R}$ can be
computed as a limit of Riemann sums. In particular, if you partition the
interval $[0,1]$ into subintervals
$$
J_i=\bigl[\frac{i-1}{k},\frac{i}{k}\bigr),\: i=1,\dots,k
$$
and choose $x_i\in J_i$, then
$$
\int _0^1 f(x)\ dx=\lim _{k\to\infty} \sum _{i=1}^k f(x_i)\frac{1}{k},
$$
where, of course, $ \frac{1}{k}=\frac{i}{k}-\frac{i-1}{k}$ is the
length of $J_i$. Now simply choose $f(x)=x^m$ to see that
$$
\frac{1}{m+1}=\frac{1}{m+1}x^{m+1}\Big |_0^1=\int _0^1 x^m\ dx=
\lim _{k\to\infty} \sum _{i=1}^k x_i^m\frac{1}{k}=
\lim _{k\to\infty} \sum _{i=1}^k \bigl( \frac{i}{k}\bigr)
^m\frac{1}{k}=
\lim _{k\to\infty} \frac{1}{k}\sum _{i=0}^k \bigl( \frac{i}{k}\bigr) ^m,
$$
where we used $x_i=\frac{i}{k}$, $i=0,\dots, k$.